The Houthis have ordered fishermen along Yemen’s Red Sea coast to stay out of the water for two to three days starting Thursday, sources familiar with the matter told Sheba Intelligence.

The fishermen were given no explanation for the order, the sources said. It remains unclear how much of the coastline or surrounding waters are covered by the restriction.

The unusual measure comes amid heightened military activity along Yemen’s western coast following the Houthi takeover of Mocha and areas around Bab al-Mandab, including positions and islands close to the international shipping lane.

A military analyst speaking to Sheba Intelligence said ordering fishermen to remain ashore for a fixed period was unusual, particularly given recent military developments around Bab al-Mandab. The reason for the restriction, however, remains unknown.

Naval Drills, Weapons Transfers or an Operation?

The analyst outlined several possible explanations for the two-to-three-day restriction.

One is that the Houthis are preparing for a naval exercise aimed at testing newly deployed capabilities and demonstrating their ability to operate along the Red Sea coast and around Bab al-Mandab.

Another possibility is a maritime weapons transfer, involving multiple small vessels unloading weapons or military equipment at different points along the coast. Such an operation could reduce reliance on larger vessels that are easier to detect and potentially target near Bab al-Mandab.

The restriction could also precede a military operation against a strategic target, potentially involving missiles, drones or explosive-laden boats, or tests of newly deployed maritime systems.

Other possibilities include the laying of naval mines, fortification work on the coast or nearby islands, and the construction of additional tunnels and military positions in preparation for a wider confrontation.

There is currently no evidence confirming any of these scenarios. Sheba Intelligence is presenting them as assessments intended to explain an unusual and unexplained restriction on fishing activity.

IRGC Forward Operations Hub

Information obtained by Sheba Intelligence indicates that developments along the western coast have gone well beyond a Houthi military redeployment.

Since the takeover of Mocha and areas surrounding Bab al-Mandab, the coast and the vicinity of the strait have been transformed into what sources describe as an advanced operations hub for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to the information, work has included the construction of tunnels and fortified positions, the installation of radar systems and dual communications networks, and the deployment of missiles, drones, explosive-laden boats and naval mines.

Sources also report preparations involving unmanned maritime systems, including small autonomous underwater vehicles, alongside new training sites and the redistribution of fighters and weapons along the coast and nearby islands.

The infrastructure is intended not only to support fighting on land but also to provide a base for planning and conducting strategic operations in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, according to the sources.

Sheba Intelligence has not independently verified all details of these deployments.

From Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab

The fishing restriction also comes as Bab al-Mandab is increasingly being viewed within the same regional maritime equation as the Strait of Hormuz.

Information obtained by Sheba Intelligence indicates that Iranian planning has linked the possibility of closing or disrupting Bab al-Mandab to decisions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, placing the two strategic waterways within a broader pressure strategy.

The military infrastructure being developed around Bab al-Mandab also appears to draw on methods long associated with the IRGC in Hormuz, including missiles, drones, small attack craft, naval mines and unmanned maritime systems.

Control of positions around Bab al-Mandab gives the Houthis — and potentially Iran through its relationship with the group — another point of pressure on international shipping, while Iran retains its established military presence around Hormuz.

There is, however, no evidence at this stage that the current order keeping fishermen ashore is a precursor to closing Bab al-Mandab to international shipping.

The Next 48–72 Hours

The limited duration of the order makes the next 48 to 72 hours particularly significant.

Any unusual movement of small vessels, missile or drone activity, naval exercises, weapons transfers, mine-related activity or military movements between the coast and nearby islands could provide an indication of what prompted the restriction.

Attention is likely to focus particularly on Mocha, Dhubab, Mayun Island and the Bab al-Mandab area.

For now, the reason behind the order remains unanswered: Are the Houthis clearing the waters for a naval exercise, a weapons transfer, tests of a new capability — or a military operation in one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors?