Political sources told Sheba Intelligence that the United States and its allies are moving toward separating negotiations with Iran from the security file involving Houthi threats to international shipping lanes and regional security.

According to the sources, the emerging approach would allow Washington and its partners to confront Houthi military and maritime threats independently of progress or setbacks in negotiations with Tehran. This would effectively reduce the Houthis’ ability to benefit from diplomatic understandings between Iran and the United States.

The information comes as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to sign a joint defense agreement during a meeting of the three countries’ leaders on Friday. If concluded, the pact could add a new regional security dimension to the changing U.S. approach toward Yemen and the Red Sea.

Southern Saudi Arabia Could Be the First Test

The timing is particularly significant as the Houthis have opened a new escalation against southern Saudi Arabia.

If Washington proceeds with separating the Houthi file from negotiations with Iran, while Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad activate their joint defense framework, Houthi attacks against Saudi territory could become the first practical test of both developments.

Rather than being treated primarily as an extension of U.S.-Iran tensions, future Houthi missile and drone attacks could increasingly be addressed as a separate regional security threat requiring a direct defensive response.

This would not necessarily mean Turkish or Pakistani involvement in military operations inside Yemen. The more immediate implications could involve intelligence sharing, early warning, air and missile defense, electronic warfare, and protection of strategic infrastructure and maritime routes.

A Broader Iranian Network

The shift also comes amid growing Saudi concern over the role of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups in threats against the Kingdom.

This expands the security equation beyond the traditional Saudi-Houthi confrontation. From Riyadh’s perspective, threats originating from Yemen could increasingly be assessed alongside Iranian and Iraqi militia activities as components of a wider regional network.

Such an assessment would also increase the strategic importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi missile, drone and maritime capabilities directly affect one of the world’s most important commercial corridors.

A New Equation for Yemen

Separating the Houthi threat from negotiations with Iran could have a significant consequence: progress between Washington and Tehran would no longer necessarily constrain military or security measures against Houthi capabilities threatening Saudi Arabia or international shipping.

The emerging equation could therefore place the Houthis between two parallel developments — a U.S.-led effort to treat their maritime and regional threats independently from diplomacy with Tehran, and a Saudi-led defense framework involving Turkey and Pakistan.

If both tracks materialize, the Houthi escalation against southern Saudi Arabia may become the first major test of a new regional deterrence architecture — with Yemen and the Red Sea at its center.