Iran escalation raises the risk of confrontation spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab Al-Mandab

Saudi Arabia has welcomed Jordan’s initiative to operate regular commercial flights between Amman and Sana’a, offering a potential route to de-escalate the confrontation triggered by the Houthis’ insistence on maintaining direct Iranian flights to areas under their control.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the initiative, approved by Yemen’s internationally recognized government, would address humanitarian needs, facilitate civilian travel and ease the suffering of the Yemeni population.

Riyadh urged the Houthis to engage positively with the proposal rather than repeat decisions that have increased civilian suffering. It also called on the group to halt escalatory measures that could draw Yemen and the wider region into further instability.

Jordan earlier announced that Royal Jordanian Airlines would operate regular commercial flights from Amman to Sana’a in response to humanitarian needs and in support of Saudi-led peace efforts. Technical and logistical preparations are still underway, with no launch date or weekly schedule announced.

The initiative offers a government-approved Arab commercial route capable of transporting patients and other passengers from Houthi-controlled areas. It also challenges the humanitarian justification used by the Houthis to introduce Iranian carriers into Sana’a Airport without authorization from the Yemeni government.

Houthi Response Reinforces the Dispute Over Control

In a statement issued shortly before Jordan publicly announced its initiative, a source in the Houthi negotiating delegation said the group would welcome flights to Sana’a only if they operated under arrangements agreed directly with the Houthi-controlled authorities and without restrictions on destinations.

The source rejected what it described as “symbolic measures” designed to bypass the group’s demand to open Sana’a Airport to all destinations. It also insisted that any airline seeking to operate flights must coordinate with the authorities in Sana’a.

Although the statement did not reject Royal Jordanian by name, it effectively rejects the initiative in its current government-approved form and preserves the Houthis’ claim to independent control over the airport’s international connections.

The position supports Sheba Intelligence’s assessment that the dispute is not primarily about humanitarian travel. It concerns who controls Sana’a’s external air links and whether the direct Iranian route will remain open.

Houthis Maintain the Iranian Route

This public position is consistent with intelligence obtained by Sheba Intelligence indicating that the Houthis continue to prepare for another Iranian flight to Sana’a despite the availability of a government-approved Jordanian alternative.

Intelligence obtained by Sheba Intelligence indicates that the Houthis continue to prepare for another Iranian flight to Sana’a despite the availability of a civilian alternative.

Sources told Sheba Intelligence that the Houthi Defense Council approved the Iranian flight alongside a plan to launch coordinated missile and drone attacks if the aircraft is intercepted or prevented from landing.

According to the sources, the group raised the readiness of its missile and drone units and deployed launch platforms on camouflaged vehicles. Targets inside Saudi Arabia and government-controlled parts of Yemen were also added to its target bank.

The meeting was reportedly attended by senior Houthi officials responsible for defense, intelligence, military operations, missiles and drones, as well as advisers and assistants from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

These preparations indicate that the dispute extends beyond passenger travel. Accepting Royal Jordanian flights would address the immediate humanitarian requirement, while continued insistence on operating Mahan Air underscores the political, logistical and potentially operational importance of maintaining a direct air corridor with Tehran.

Wider Iran Escalation

The dispute coincides with preparations for a possible expansion of U.S. military operations against Iran. Washington is deploying additional aerial refueling aircraft to support extended missions while broader strikes against Iranian infrastructure, power facilities and nuclear sites remain under consideration. Although no final decision has been announced, these preparations increase the risk of a wider conflict and of Tehran activating allied armed groups across the region.

Could the Hormuz Confrontation Reach Bab Al-Mandab?

A broader campaign against Iran could prompt Tehran to open additional pressure fronts through its regional partners. The Houthis are among the few Iran-aligned actors capable of threatening international shipping at another strategic maritime chokepoint.

Sheba Intelligence previously reported Houthi preparations for a naval exercise simulating the closure of Bab Al-Mandab. The platform also documented missile and drone deployments along Yemen’s western coast and movements involving IRGC-linked personnel.

These indicators do not prove that Tehran has ordered the Houthis to close the strait. They do, however, increase the likelihood that Iran could request attacks on commercial shipping or other disruptive operations around Bab Al-Mandab if its nuclear facilities or critical infrastructure come under a wider assault.

Within this context, maintaining direct Iranian flights to Houthi-controlled territory could help preserve coordination channels and facilitate the movement of personnel or sensitive equipment ahead of a more dangerous regional phase.

The Houthi position strengthens the conclusion that securing civilian flights alone is not the group’s central objective. By demanding unrestricted access to all destinations under arrangements controlled from Sana’a, the Houthis are seeking to preserve an independent aviation channel that includes Iran.

The Jordanian initiative has therefore become a test of whether the group is prepared to prioritize civilian travel and de-escalation, or maintain its direct Iranian connection as part of a broader regional strategy that could eventually extend the confrontation from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab Al-Mandab.