Why Did Houthi Drones Fail to Hit Their Targets in Israel?

The two drones that fell in Nuweiba and Taba of Egypt on Friday were coming from the southern Red Sea aiming north, said the military spokesman for the Egyptian army, Gharib Abdel Hafez.

Since October 7, the Middle East has been volatile as the Hamas surprise attack on Israeli settlements bordering Gaza has opened a new chapter of war between Israel and Palestinians. As time passed, the scale of the conflict expanded as countries and groups in the region began to step in.

Therefore, the two drone explosions in Egypt on Friday may have multiple explanations. Iran and its allies in the region, including Yemen's Houthi group, have threatened to engage in the war if Israel crosses the red line. This reality raises some questions. The most important of which are: did the Houthis fire the drones? Why did they fail to strike its target in Israel?

On October 19, the US Army announced that the destroyer USS Carney had shot down missiles and drones coming from Yemen. Comparing them to the two incidents of drone strikes announced by the Egyptian Army on Friday, the most likely scenario is that the Houthis sent missiles and drones in an attempt to target southern Israel, in particular Eilat Port, which is the closest target to the Houthi group. If we exclude the rest of the scenarios that refer to other parties in the region, why did the Houthi drones fail to reach the Israeli Eilat port?

Sheba Intelligence's recent investigation into the Houthi drones and air capabilities revealed that the Houthis rely on a pre-programming system through GPS for drones and missiles that are sent to hit targets farther than 250 km. Then, a ground station receives the drone and accurately directs it toward the target.

 According to a military expert who participated in the investigation, the failure of the Houthi missiles and drones to arrive suggests that the Houthis do not have a ground station close to Eilat or the air defenses shot it down, as happened on October 19 when an American warship intercepted missiles and drones coming from Yemen.

The military expert said the Houthis would need a ground station for missiles and drones located in Egyptian, Jordanian, or Saudi territorial waters. He indicated that the lack of a ground station close to the target will not make the Houthi drones or missiles accurate, and they may fall before reaching the target.

The military expert added that the Houthis have not officially acknowledged sending missiles or drones to Israel, and this suggests that their missiles and drones failed to hit targets, which reveals the lack of cooperation from Iran with the Houthis in achieving successful strikes as Iran has military and commercial ships carrying ground stations and drones that roam the Red Sea.

Israel immediately accused the Houthis of being behind firing the missiles and drones, and it exploited this matter to push Egypt to be preoccupied with a new enemy that threatens Egypt's airspace, said the expert.

Israel also intends to exaggerate the Houthi capabilities in an attempt to hold Iran responsible so that Tehran limits its logistical support to the Houthis. However, the expert said that Iran has granted the Houthis the green light to carry out more attacks in the region.