Iranian Assessment: Houthi Takeover of Marib Will End Saudi Alliance with Yemeni Government

A classified assessment by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard revealed Iran's interest in the Yemeni situation from three angles: Saudi Arabia, Bab al-Mandab, and Marib.

The Cultural and Social Deputy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Office of Foreign Policy, Security, and Defense Studies prepared and presented the assessment on September 14, 2021. It remains an effective Iranian strategy in Yemen today.

The assessment, a copy of which was obtained by Sheba Intelligence in Persian, touched briefly on the phase of the war in Yemen, the future of the negotiations, and Iran's strategic goals.

The assessment highlighted the Iranian need to pay attention to Yemen's strategic location, particularly Bab al-Mandab. It revealed that Iran's post-war strategy is to control the oil-rich province of Marib.

A paragraph in the Iranian assessment of Marib said, "Taking over Marib province will be a major achievement for Ansar Allah in the future negotiations in Yemen."

The assessment of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard states that the special geopolitical situation of Marib and the entry of Houthi forces into this province is the end of Saudi Arabia's alliance with the Yemeni government.

The assessment described Yemen as a quagmire for Saudi Arabia, saying that the competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in Yemen led to the division of southern Yemen and the expulsion of the government from Aden.

The assessment recommended amplifying the Houthis' missile capabilities and called for the need to study the impact of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan on Washington's allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia.