Nine Years of Conflict in Yemen, Peace Agreement Remains Elusive

After nine years of war, there does not seem to be any prospect of ending the conflict between the Yemenis. The Yemeni people displayed optimism about the dialogue sponsored by China between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, thinking that would result in peace in Yemen.

A government official familiar with the negotiations ruled out any agreement with the Houthi group during this stage. He told Sheba Intelligence, "The war scenario is closer than the peace scenario in Yemen because the Houthis are escalating on the ground and have returned to threatening neighboring countries and are continuing their attacks on international trade routes in the Red Sea."

Information obtained by Sheba Intelligence indicated that the desire of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to achieve a Yemeni-Yemeni agreement collided with many obstacles, including the "impossible conditions and demands" of the Houthis, the ongoing rifts occurring among the government's allies, and the American tendency to obstruct any peace agreement with the Houthis as they continue to threaten merchant ships.

At a time when the Yemeni government-controlled areas are witnessing an unprecedented military and political movement that culminated in the meeting of the Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, with all leaders of the military region, the Houthi leader raised again the conditions for peace that his group wants to achieve.

The Houthi leader said in a speech celebrating what he called the "Day of Resilience" that there is no justification for either the Saudis or the Emirates to continue evading peace in Yemen. He said, "If they really want peace, they should move from the stage of reducing escalation to peace entitlements and serious steps in accordance with a clear agreement that includes what we have been stressing, and based on the discussions and negotiations that took place throughout all thepast stages. [There should] be an agreement that leads to a complete end to the siege, aggression,and occupation, and to the exchange of prisoners."

On the other hand, two members of the Presidential Leadership Council, Aidaroos Al-Zubaidi and Abu Zaraa Al-Muharami, are holding discussions in the United Arab Emirates, which is a major member of the Arab coalition that was formed in March 2015 to overthrow the Houthi coup. It is not known what issues they will discuss. However, sources told Sheba Intelligence that Abu Dhabi is unhappy about the Saudi rapprochement with the Houthis without it having a role equivalent to its role in the war.

Sheba Intelligence obtained information indicating that the Houthis are preparing three military operations rooms in Saada and Al-Jawf inthe presence of foreign experts there, which suggests that they are preparing for a military operation on the border. It is not known whether the group will target Saudi territory or assault oil-gas-rich areas in Marib and Shabwa.

Al-Houthi again accused the Arab coalition of controlling Yemen's sovereign oil and gas wealth and managing the ports, the coast, and Bab al-Mandab Strait. He said, "But the coalition failed to occupy our country's geographical and strategic depth. The densely populated provinces remained in confrontation, resistance, jihad, and steadfastness."

In an interview on Sunday, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a member of the group's Supreme Political Council, said the United States is pressuring several countries to join their coalition against Yemen.

He warned all countries, saying, "We renew our warnings that any country that would act against our country would make its interests a legitimate target for us."

He also warned Saudi Arabia that it "would be a target for us if they provided aid and support to the US-British aggression against our country."

The Houthi group accused the Saudi-led Arab coalition of causing massive destruction to Yemen's infrastructure. The military intervention of the Arab coalition began in March 2015 and stopped in early 2022. The Houthi leader provided yesterday figures about the magnitude of the losses Yemen endured during the years of war. The following explains the number of losses in various sectors.