Military operations in Yemen to regain control of Bab al-Mandab and the western coast are unfolding alongside rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egyptian and Turkish military moves in Somalia, and expanding Israeli security ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland.

In Yemen, government forces, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, announced the recapture of Bab al-Mandab and Dhubab in early October as part of Operation Dawn of Yemen, following Houthi advances in the area in September. Control over some strategic locations, including Mayyun Island, remains subject to conflicting claims.

Across the Red Sea, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have intensified over Addis Ababa's ambitions to secure access to the sea, particularly through Eritrea's Assab port. Both countries have exchanged accusations at the UN Security Council over military movements and support for armed groups, raising concerns about a broader confrontation.

Meanwhile, Turkey announced that two naval frigates would depart for Somalia on October 30 carrying supplies and personnel, while Egypt is preparing to deploy approximately 1,000 troops under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

On October 4, Egypt hosted a summit with Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, during which the four countries emphasized the importance of securing the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Israel has also publicly supported Ethiopia's efforts to gain maritime access, following its recognition of Somaliland in December 2025. These developments have heightened regional disagreements over ports and strategic influence along the Gulf of Aden. However, no publicly verified evidence establishes Israeli involvement in an Ethiopian plan to invade Eritrea.

The consequences of Yemen's conflict have already reached the African shore. Reports citing humanitarian agencies indicate that thousands of Yemenis have crossed into Djibouti since September.

Separately, Reuters reported on October 22 that Egypt had discussed potential defensive support for Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks, with Cairo reportedly limiting any prospective involvement to protecting Saudi territory rather than conducting operations inside Yemen.

Together, these developments place Bab al-Mandab at the intersection of three overlapping security crises: Yemen's ongoing war, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions over access to the Red Sea, and growing Egyptian, Turkish, and Israeli military and strategic engagement across the Horn of Africa.

While these developments are unfolding simultaneously, no verified evidence currently establishes a coordinated military plan linking all the regional actors involved.